Sept 21, 2020.
This is the fourth
stage of the dangerous escalation between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern
Mediterranean.
The initial stage
was marked by a partnership between Greece, Egypt, Israel and the Greek
Cypriots in the Eastern Mediterranean. They aimed to identify their respective
exclusive economic zones (EEZs) as they pleased in order to exploit the rich
natural resources in the Eastern Mediterranean and to carry out seismic
research and drilling activities at will. Turkey responded to that move by
dispatching its research vessels and drillships to the Mediterranean – along
with its navy. The Turkish response was designed to safeguard Ankara’s
interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and spoil the quadripartite coalition’s
game. By signing a maritime agreement with Libya’s government and offering
military support to Tripoli, Turkey accomplished that goal.
By the second act,
a military escalation was underway in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey and
Greece agreed to exploratory talks brokered by Germany. Athens, however,
derailed the prospective talks by concluding an EEZ agreement with Egypt. Once
again, Ankara dispatched its seismic research vessel, accompanied by its navy,
to the Mediterranean. As France, having failed to get what it wanted in Libya,
intervened, the Eastern Mediterranean became a geopolitical minefield pitting
NATO navies against each other.
The situation
further escalated in the third phase. To address those tensions and prevent a
potential confrontation between the two navies, Turkey and Greece agreed to
hold technical talks between their military officials under NATO’s roof.
In the current
(fourth) episode, diplomacy has come to play a more prominent role once again –
largely thanks to Germany’s involvement. Greece and France have been trying to
take their bilateral problems with Turkey out of context and spark a crisis
between Ankara and Brussels. As such, they hope to isolate the Turks and reap
the benefits of the ongoing crisis. In addition to getting the European Union
to sanction Turkey, those countries have been trying to get third parties
involved in bilateral talks between Ankara and Athens. Turkey, in turn, has
given diplomacy a chance to contain the crisis at the bilateral level and
undermine the French argument that Ankara favors escalation.
There is no doubt
that the EU will side with Greece in any crisis between Ankara and Athens – as
it repeatedly has vis-a-vis the Cyprus issue. Diplomatic initiatives, however,
may reduce the costs of that opposition. Let us recall that Turkish Cypriots
signed off on the Annan Plan in 2004, whereas the Greek Cypriots, who vetoed
the peace deal, were admitted into the EU. Although that decision seemed to be
a negative development for Turkey initially, it relieved almost all of the
pressure on Ankara over the Cyprus dispute.
At the end of the
day, diplomacy is the art of minimizing one’s costs and maximizing one’s gains
en route to one’s designated destination.
At this point,
Turkey has recalled the Oruç Reis seismic vessel to the port of Antalya in order
to give diplomacy a chance. Direct talks between Ankara and Athens are expected
to begin in the coming days. The two countries need to tackle a long list of
issues, including EEZs, continental shelves, Cyprus and the unlawful
remilitarization of the Aegean islands. The Turkish government wants potential
negotiations with Greece to cover all four issues. According to sources,
however, the Greeks wish to discuss the question of continental shelves alone.
Greece’s current
position is an attempt to play for time. It certainly does not intend to solve
actual problems. If Athens sticks to its guns, it will only further escalate
tensions. Turkey, in turn, will have to undermine future criticism by giving
diplomacy a chance today.
The ball is on
Greece’s court. If a military escalation shapes the Turkish-Greek crisis’ fifth
chapter, the EU’s support for Athens would mean absolutely nothing.
BY Yanhya Bostan
